Jobs Data Delayed With Partial Government Shutdown

What Is Happening Today

Stocks are slightly higher this morning after news that the U.S. and India reached a trade deal, while mortgage bonds are modestly lower but off their worst levels. Markets are also navigating a partial government shutdown, which is disrupting key economic releases. With JOLTS, jobless claims, and the BLS Jobs Report delayed, tomorrow’s ADP Employment Report is now the most important labor signal for the week.

Cotality Home Price Outlook Strengthens

Home values declined 0.2% in December on a monthly basis
Prices are still up 0.9% year over year nationally
Cotality expects home values to be flat in January
Forecast calls for +4.5% appreciation over the next 12 months, up from a prior 4.3% outlook

Cotality notes that demand is expected to increase in 2026 while builders remain slow to add supply, which supports higher prices, especially in tight inventory markets.

Regional Supply Will Drive Appreciation

Builders are not responding quickly to renewed demand
Markets with limited inventory should see stronger price gains
Areas with higher supply may see more moderate appreciation

The takeaway is that national averages matter less than local conditions, making timing and strategy increasingly market specific.

ISM Manufacturing Beats Expectations

January ISM Manufacturing moved back above 50, signaling expansion for the first time in a year
Most components improved, though labor remained in contraction
ISM cautioned that strength may reflect post holiday reordering and pre price increase activity

Despite tempered commentary, bonds sold off yesterday on the stronger than expected data, contributing to today’s cautious tone.

ADP Takes Center Stage This Week

With BLS data delayed, ADP is the key labor report to watch
Market expectations are near 50,000 new jobs for January
Current analysis suggests job growth closer to 30,000

A weaker ADP reading would reinforce signs of labor market cooling and could help mortgage bonds recover.

Final Takeaway

With government data delayed, markets are forced to rely on fewer signals, making each release more impactful. At the same time, home price forecasts are quietly moving higher as demand builds and supply remains constrained. If labor data continues to soften, it could support lower rates later this year, while buyers who wait risk paying higher prices.

If you are wondering how today’s data affects your buying power, refinancing options, or timing strategy, now is a great time to reach out. Whether you are looking to get pre approved, lock in a rate, or plan your next move, having a clear strategy matters more than ever.