Home Prices Rise as Fed Meeting Begins

What Is Happening Today

Stocks and mortgage bonds are both higher this morning as markets settle ahead of the Federal Reserve’s two day policy meeting. The Fed will release its statement tomorrow afternoon, followed by a press conference with Chair Powell. With rates already drifting lower and housing demand beginning to respond, today’s appreciation data reinforces the idea that lower rates are quickly translating into stronger home price momentum.

At the same time, labor data continues to soften beneath the surface, keeping pressure on the Fed to remain patient and potentially act later this year if weakness continues.

Home Price Growth Accelerates

Case Shiller prices rose 0.4% in November after a 0.4% gain in October
Raw prices dipped 0.1%, reflecting normal seasonal patterns
This marks four straight months of seasonally adjusted gains
Year over year prices rose 1.4%, unchanged from the prior month

Home prices continue to recover as lower rates late last year drove renewed demand and reversed the recent soft patch.

FHFA Shows Stronger Appreciation

FHFA prices rose 0.6% in November, stronger than expected
Year over year prices increased 1.9%, up from 1.7% previously
FHFA data excludes jumbo and cash buyers, often showing firmer trends

Both major indexes confirm that falling rates are already feeding directly into stronger price appreciation.

Labor Market Continues to Cool

ADP weekly average fell to 7,750 jobs per week
December averaged near 40,000, now trending closer to 30,000
Recent weeks declined from 11,000 to 8,000 to 7,750
Most job gains continue to come from healthcare and education

Hiring momentum continues to slow, keeping the labor market from overheating and supporting the case for eventual Fed easing.

Key Events This Week

Wednesday: Mortgage Applications and Fed statement with press conference
Thursday: Jobless Claims, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs
Friday: Producer Price Index

Markets are fully focused on the Fed’s guidance and Powell’s tone for clues on the timing of future rate cuts.

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates are slightly lower today as investors digest strong home price data and await the Fed’s policy update tomorrow. Both Case Shiller and FHFA reports show that even modest rate declines are already translating into firmer home prices, reinforcing how sensitive housing demand remains to borrowing costs.

With hiring trends softening and inflation slowly easing, the Fed is likely to stay cautious for now, but the path toward lower rates in 2026 remains intact. For buyers and homeowners, today’s data is another reminder that waiting on the sidelines often means paying higher prices later.