Bonds Rebound Amid Skepticism Over BLS Jobs Data

What Is Happening Today

Stocks are mixed and Mortgage Bonds are higher, erasing yesterday’s losses as the market continues to digest the “strong” BLS Jobs Report. Despite the headline 130,000 jobs created in January, Bonds are rebounding as traders question the quality of the data and focus on ongoing revisions. Yields have pulled back from recent highs, signaling that investors are not fully buying into the strength of the labor report.

BLS Jobs Report

January showed 130,000 jobs created, but prior months were revised lower by a combined 17,000.
The BLS also revised 2025 job growth down by 69%, marking the weakest year for job growth since the Great Recession.
Raw data showed 2.65M jobs lost in the Business Survey and 630,000 lost in the Household Survey before seasonal adjustments.
Most private sector gains came from Education and Healthcare, while other sectors combined showed 517,000 job losses in 2025.
There have been consistent downward revisions throughout 2025, reinforcing skepticism around initial prints.

The takeaway is that while the headline number looked strong, persistent downward revisions and narrow sector growth are keeping Bond traders cautious.

Existing Home Sales

January Existing Home Sales fell 8.4% versus expectations for a 4% decline.
The annualized pace is now 3.91M.
Inventory dropped 0.8% to 1.22M units, with months’ supply at 3.7, below the balanced level of 4.6.
Median home price declined 2% month over month to $396,800 but remains up 0.9% year over year.
First-time buyers made up 31% of purchases, up from 29% previously and 28% last year.

While sales were weaker than expected, tight inventory continues to support pricing and signals that supply remains a key constraint.

Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Claims fell 5,000 to 227,000, slightly above expectations.
Continuing Claims rose 21,000 to 1.86M.
Benefits are still expiring in many states, limiting how long individuals remain in the data.

Claims remain relatively stable, offering little confirmation of a sharply strengthening labor market.

NY Fed Consumer Credit

Consumer credit levels continue to rise.
90+ day delinquencies on Auto Loans and Credit Cards are at the highest levels since the Great Financial Crisis.
Retail Sales were weak in January, raising questions about consumer durability.

Rising delinquencies alongside softer spending data suggest consumer resilience may be fading.

Final Takeaway

Despite a headline jobs report that appeared strong, markets are focusing on heavy downward revisions, narrow sector growth, and ongoing inconsistencies in the data. Mortgage Bonds are responding by moving higher, with yields easing as skepticism builds. At the same time, housing inventory remains tight and consumer credit stress is rising, creating a mixed but opportunity-rich environment.

If you are wondering how today’s data affects your buying power, refinance opportunity, or timing strategy, now is a great time to connect. Whether you are looking to get pre-approved, evaluate a refinance, or plan your next move, having a clear strategy in this shifting market can make all the difference.